SouthGobi Resources Provides Operating Update
HONG KONG, CHINA -- (Marketwire) -- 06/25/12 -- SouthGobi Resources Ltd. (TSX: SGQ)(HK: 1878) ("SouthGobi") operations continue to be effected by a number of external factors including regulatory issues in Mongolia and deteriorating market conditions.
Regulatory issues in Mongolia
On April 16, 2012, SouthGobi announced that the Mineral Resources Authority of Mongolia ("MRAM") held a press conference announcing a request to suspend exploration and mining activity on certain licenses but no official notification had been received. At this time, the Company remains in the position where no official notification has been received and therefore there is no legal impediment to continued operation. However, SouthGobi continues to be impacted by issues associated with the public announcement regarding its licenses.
There are multiple ways SouthGobi is being affected by the uncertainty over its licenses with various levels of impact. Many government bodies and regulatory authorities in Mongolia are reluctant to provide approvals and permits due to the uncertain position. One example is that SouthGobi's Mongolian operating subsidiary has been unable to receive an approval for a revision to its Environmental Impact Assessment for the dry coal handling facility ("DCHF") from the Mongolian Ministry of Environment. Without such approval, SouthGobi may be unable to operate the DCHF.
The Mongolian Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy ("MRE") commented at a press conference on May 30, 2012 "the temporary suspension has been lifted, but regarding the new law, the license of Ovoot Tolgoi will be discussed by the cabinet and parliament". Subsequently we have written to MRAM and the MRE requesting official clarification. However, to date no such clarification has been received.
China market conditions
For late 2011 and through most of 2012, coking coal prices in the inland China markets closest to SouthGobi's operations remained fairly stable and somewhat insulated from the price declines of reference coking coal prices in the seaborne market. However, in recent weeks the Company has observed a substantial deterioration in sentiment among its customers and a decline in reference prices in key end-use markets. For example, after remaining constant for all of 2012, the reference price for one-third coking coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia fell by RMB20/tonne on April 23 and then fell a further RMB30/tonne on June 18. Further east in Baotou, Inner Mongolia, the reference price for clean coking coal started falling in late May and has now fallen by RMB110/tonne.
Customer behaviour and impact on SouthGobi's sales and operations
Most of SouthGobi's coal is sold to its largest customers on the basis of quarterly sales agreements. Customers agree to purchase coal according to their projected volume and specification requirements. The sale is completed when the Company delivers the coal into a customs-bonded stockpile facility at the Ovoot Tolgoi Mine for the customers to manage their own collection and export.
During the second quarter of 2012 customers were reluctant to enter into meaningful new purchase commitments for a number of reasons, including:
i. Customer's ability to transport so far this year was below their
projections due to: the delay in the opening the expanded border
crossing capacity by authorities until May; extended border holiday
closure in the first quarter; and the closure of the export road for
over four weeks in April and May for repair. As a result, customers
accumulated more inventory of pre-purchased coal on the Mongolian side
of the border.
ii. Lack of clarity over whether SouthGobi may receive a formal license
suspension at some stage has customers fearful that they would be unable
to collect and export additional purchased coal from Ovoot Tolgoi Mine.
iii.Deteriorating market conditions.
SouthGobi's customers have been focused on physical shipment and now that the border capacity expansion is open physical coal transportation is well above prior records. The Company expects that for June alone (the first full month with expanded border capacity), approximately 500,000-600,000 tonnes of Ovoot Tolgoi Mine coal will be transported to China, albeit mostly coal from customer inventory. However, the Company's current estimate for new coal sales for the second quarter of 2012 is between 200,000 tonnes and 300,000 tonnes.
In terms of operations, SouthGobi has curtailed its mining activity at Ovoot Tolgoi Mine at various levels during the second quarter of 2012 to ensure the Company does not build significant unsold coal inventory and to maintain efficient levels of working capital. SouthGobi currently estimates that total coal mined for the quarter will be approximately 200,000 tonnes. As at the end of the quarter, the operation will be entirely curtailed.
Outlook
At this time SouthGobi believes it is difficult to estimate coal sales volumes and pricing for the third quarter of 2012. It does appear that customers have robust volume appetite for the third quarter, particularly as the Company's largest customer has now exhausted pre-purchased coal inventory. However, achieving mutually agreeable contracts is difficult in the context of the regional coking coal market conditions.
With the difficult conditions of the second quarter and the uncertainty regarding how the third quarter may evolve, the Company cautions that at this time sales volumes, pricing and production volume outcomes for the full year of 2012 cannot be estimated.
In addition to the curtailment of mining operations, SouthGobi has suspended uncommitted capital expenditure and exploration expenditure. These initiatives have been taken to preserve the Company's financial resources.
About SouthGobi Resources
SouthGobi Resources is focused on exploration and development of its Permian-age metallurgical and thermal coal deposits in Mongolia's South Gobi Region. The Company's flagship coal mine, Ovoot Tolgoi, is producing and selling coal to customers in China. The Company plans to supply a wide range of coal products to markets in Asia.
Forward-Looking Statements: This document includes forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, sales and production estimates for second quarter, operation curtailment at quarter-end, does appear customers have robust volume appetite for the third quarter, achieving mutually agreeable contracts is difficult, pricing and volume outcomes for the full year 2012 cannot be estimated, plans to supply a wide range of coal products to markets in Asia; and other statements that are not historical facts. When used in this document, the words such as "plan", "estimate", "expect", "intend", "may", "likely" and similar expressions are forward-looking statements. Although SouthGobi believes that the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements are reasonable, such statements involve risks and uncertainties and no assurance can be given that actual results will be consistent with these forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ from these forward-looking statements are disclosed under the heading "Risk Factors" in SouthGobi's Management Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations for the year ended Dec. 31, 2011 which is available at www.sedar.com.
Contacts:
SouthGobi Resources Limited
Dave Bartel, Vice President Investor Relations and
External Affairs (Hong Kong)
+852 2156 7023
www.southgobi.com